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Writer's pictureWilliam Clare

Day 9 and 10 at COP29: A last minute deal or years down the drain?

Credit: Hyundai Motor Group, Unsplash


The Japanese car manufacturer Nissan held crisis talks with the British Government on Wednesday and warned that zero-emission car targets would have an ‘irreversible impact’ on the British motor industry. Car manufacturer Ford simultaneously revealed plans to axe 800 jobs in the UK as a result of flagging EV sales. Despite these warnings, British ministers reaffirmed proposals to introduce green targets only minutes after the conclusion of talks. The demand for EV cars in the UK remains comparatively low, with manufacturers not seeing returns on their investment into the EV space – high prices and a lack of charging infrastructure are likely responsible. Chief Executive of OpenReach Clive Selly spoke to the BBC and affirmed that public charging infrastructure in the UK was both ‘insufficient and unreliable’.


Argentinian representatives were withdrawn from the COP29 summit last week by climate sceptic Javier Milei’s government. This event sparked fears that Argentina would abandon the Paris Agreement, but Foreign Minister Gerardo Werthein confirmed on Wednesday that Argentina would not leave the pact. Instead, he claimed that ‘we are simply reevaluating our position’ on certain minor clauses.


The Brazilian government, United Nations and UNESCO together announced a new initiative to combat climate disinformation. The initiative aims to strengthen international collaboration, and will implement measures such as setting aside funds for NGO’s to conduct research on climate information integrity. The UK, Sweden, Chile, Denmark, France, and Morocco have already confirmed that they will participate in this initiative.

The EU and 25 other countries further called for no new coal in national climate plans. The initial signatories announced that they would not implement any new measures to exploit coal reserves, and called for all other nations to bring an end to new coal power before COP30 next year.


Denmark came top of an annual climate performance index released at COP29 today, but, once again, the first three sports of the ranking have been left empty due to no country doing enough to earn a place. The top 5 countries (positions 4 – 9) were Denmark, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the Philippines and Morocco.


Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, Panama’s Climate Envoy, vehemently condemned nations’ military spending in the face of the climate crisis. He referred to the fact that global military spending currently reaches $2.5 trillion a year, and declared that ‘For some $2.5 trillion to kill each other, it’s not enough, but one trillion to save lives is unreasonable…causing our own extinction is the most ridiculous thing. At least the dinosaurs had an asteroid. What is our excuse?’. The delay in negotiations and lack of agreement over a concrete target for climate finance has led island nations to ‘feel abandoned’ by the COP29 process and developed countries.


The COP29 presidency announced that delegates should expect a new draft text on climate finance at around midnight tonight. The texts should be shorter and more concise, but Azerbaijani Lead Negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev did clarify that ‘these texts are not final’.

 

On the penultimate day of the COP29 summit, the draft text on climate finance is still unfinished and divisive. The target for the new collective quantified goal is currently just a placeholding ‘X’. Li Shuo, Director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, concluded that the text ‘presents two extreme ends of the aisle without much in between…[the text] misses a number that defines the scale of future climate finance, a prerequisite for negotiation in good faith’. The EU’s Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra began proceedings by stating that ‘It is currently unacceptable as it stands’.  Australia’s Environment Minister declared that the draft was ‘a big step back and it is not acceptable at this moment of crisis’. On behalf of small island nations, Samon representatives reiterated the importance of committing to a set number, and argued that the text doesn’t cover all the issues that have been discussed. Ugandan negotiators, on behalf of the G77 and China, similarly stated that they had ‘been very clear that we should not leave Baku without a number’.


Later in the day, Zambian representatives said they were ‘extremely concerned and sad’ over the lack of number, and said that Baku needed ‘to deliver on its expectation that it’s a finance COP’. Simon Watts, New Zealand’s Environment Minister specified that ‘New Zealand is deeply frustrated with the pace of progress being made…it is not acceptable to restrict the scope of this dialogue to cherry-picking outcomes’. Germany’s climate envoy, Jennifer Morgan, was similarly disappointed and clarified that the text represented ‘no progress’. The UK’s Ed Miliband also addressed the plenary, stating that ‘we know that we cannot afford to fail at this COP’, and called for countries to bridge their differences and reach an agreement on a concrete figure.


Azerbaijan, hosts of COP29, have confirmed that there will be no cover text at COP29. Cover texts tend to be a ‘catch-all’ summative document for COPs, and the lack of one this year can be attributed to the disagreement over the COP28 resolution to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’. Saudi Arabia, immediately after agreeing to the resolution last year, attempted to renege on their agreement and by gathering its compatriots (known as the Like Minded Developing Countries) this year at COP29 have consistently attempted to sideline any discussions concerning reducing usage on fossil fuels.


The Azerbaijani hosts have utterly failed to take control of the issue, and the majority of representatives are furious at the behaviour of the Saudis and the LMDC. The LMDC have threatened to invoke Rule 16 and postpone the conference for a year on multiple occasions, and COP29 runs the risk of rowing back on hard-won progress made last year at COP29 – let alone achieving the goal of securing agreement on climate finance. If this situation isn’t resolved, where the summit is ‘made a mockery of’ by a recalcitrant minority, then the COP process might be finished for good. Matters were made far worse today when Saudi delegate Albara Tawfiq openly declared that ‘The Arab group will not accept any text that targets any specific sectors, including fossil fuels’.


The COP29 presidency issued a statement defending the draft text in response to the widespread criticism for not containing a figure concerning climate finance, stating that a new draft will be released tonight ‘and will contain numbers based on our view of possible landing zones for consensus’. The statement further declared that ‘we believe that a breakthrough in Baku is in sight’.


Antonio Guterres, the United Nation’s Secretary General, returned to COP29 and issued a message to the delegates present. He recognised that ‘COP29 is now down to the wire’, but highlighted that ‘failure is not an option…a surge in finance is essential’. He called for negotiators to ‘soften hard lines’ and to keep their eyes on the bigger picture. In his concluding statement, he referred to climate finance as ‘a down-payment on a safer, more prosperous future for every nation on Earth’.


Countries are already fighting over who will host COP31 (as Brazil have already been confirmed as the hosts for COP30). The Australian government, in partnership with Pacific island nations, are attempting to host a ‘Pacific COP’.  They have the support of over 20 countries, including the UK, Germany, France, the US, and Canada. Their sole opponents to the hosting rights are Turkey, who are currently resisting attempts to see their bid dismissed.


Although overshadowed by the ensuing chaos at COP29, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto made an important announcement at the G20 summit today in which he stated Indonesian’s aim to phase out all fossil fuel power plants by 2040. Indonesia, as the world’s biggest coal exporter, was not expected to make this ‘very significant’ announcement. President Subianto attributed this change in policy to the exacerbation of poverty and hunger in Indonesia due to global heating.

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