The annual meeting on climate change, COP29, is being hosted in Baku, the capital city of Azerbaijan, this week and next (November 11 – 22).
In a report deliberately coinciding with the start of COP29, the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation has warned that 2024 is set to be the world’s warmest year on record, and extreme weather events such as the flooding in Spain and Hurricanes Milton and Helene demonstrate the need for immediate action.
Leaders from nearly 100 countries are attending, and COP29 has been billed as an opportunity to solve the crucial issue of getting money to poorer and undeveloped countries. UN Climate Change Chief Simon Stiell has called for attendees to ‘dispense with any idea that climate finance is charity’, emphasising the global nature of climate change and the need for unity and international cooperation to reach a solution.
There are various contemporary events which risk overshadowing the COP29 summit. One of the most notable is the US election of Donald Trump, a known climate sceptic who is expected to pull out of the groundbreaking 2015 Paris agreement.
Two major wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, cost of living crises, and the nonattendance of major leaders such as Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Emmanuel Macron, Narendra Modi, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also raises questions concerning the perceived significance of the summit amongst global leaders.
Finally, accusations have been levelled at the suitability of Azerbaijan to host COP29. The country’s human rights record is questionable, as political opposition isn’t tolerated, and the country plans to expand gas production by up to a third over the next decade.
Moreover, the chief executive of Azerbaijan’s COP29 team Elnur Soltanov has appeared to use his position in attempts to strike new oil and gas deals – an act described by Christiana Figueres, who oversaw the signing of the 2015 Paris agreement, as ‘contrary’, ‘egregious’, and ‘a treason’.
DAY 1 - 11/11/2024
Despite the re-election of Donald Trump, the US special envoy to COP29 John Podesta remains positive – ‘The fight [against climate change] is bigger than one election, one political cycle and one country. We are living through a year defined by the climate crisis in every country of the world’.
The most significant event on Day 1 was the agreement reached to allow richer developed countries to make up for their greenhouse gas emissions by investing in clean energy or forestation projects in developing nations. A global ‘carbon market’ can now be established, with supporters arguing that up to 250 billion USD could be invested into poorer nations from more developed countries.
It is far cheaper and more attractive from a developed nations perspective to invest in clean energy projects in a less developed country, rather than having to implement expensive domestic projects and reforms. The potential for an increase in clean energy and emission reduction projects for a fraction of the expense may help to alleviate concerns amongst citizens with regards to rising costs.
There are, however, concerns about fraud and whether carbon removals from these investments will be permanent and have a real effect on global carbon emission mitigation. The possibility that richer countries may use foreign investment to excuse their own carbon emissions with no intention of reducing reliance on fossil fuels is both unfair and a significant problem, and is expected to be further discussed during the rest of the COP29 summit.
DAY 2 - 12/11/2024
Official representatives of the Taliban are present at COP29, although they cannot participate in official proceedings as they are not formally recognised by UN member states. Afghanistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to extreme weather brought about by climate change, and Taliban representatives have stated that international investment will be needed to revitalise nationwide sustainability projects.
The head of the UN, Antonio Guterres, made an impassioned speech to COP29 attendees and implored wealthy countries to commit more money to fighting climate change. He started his speech with the ominous phrase: ‘2024 – a masterclass in climate destruction’. He reframed climate finance as an investment rather than charity, and reaffirmed the importance of delivering the overall finance goal – at least $1 trillion/year.
The UN’s refugee body, the UNCHR, released a report detailing how climate change is making life even more difficult for refugees. The report found that those in ‘extremely fragile states’ received c. $2 of adaptation funding per year, compared to $161 in non-fragile states. It found this ‘deep injustice’ was exacerbated by the majority of funding going to capital cities at the detriment to rural areas.
In response to the re-election of Donald Trump and concern around the US pulling out of the 2015 Paris agreement, the UK’s Energy Security and Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband attempted to reassure the UK public by saying that ‘we [the UK government] will work with him and seek that common ground’.
Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the UK, stated that there were two paths ahead – one of inaction and delay, and one ‘fixed firmly on the opportunities for tomorrow’. He cited opportunities for investment, better jobs, cheaper bills, development of new technologies, and the possible prosperity of all nations for decades to come.
Starmer stated that the UK is the first G7 economy to completely phase out coal power, and urged all members of the conference to be ambitious. Starmer has previously made clear that he wants the UK to be a global leader in response to climate change, and used his speech at COP29 to announce the UK’s new climate target three months ahead of the deadline: to reduce emissions by 81% against the levels of 1990 by 2035.
This new target is in line with the Climate Change Committee’s assessment that an 81% emissions reduction target, up from the previous 68%, would make a ‘credible contribution’. The CCC have stated that this target will be hard without significant changes to the way people in the UK live – for example, eliminating all petrol and diesel powered cars, and a 20% shift away from meat and dairy products in the next five years. However,
Starmer reiterated no less than three times that he was ‘not going to tell people how to behave’. He spoke about investing in clean technology and transport so that the public would not have to make difficult or compromising choices.
Starmer also clarified that the UK would honour the commitment made by the preceding Conservative government to provide £11.6 billion of climate finance in the period of April 2021 to March 2026. He did, however, specify that international financial institutions needed to be reformed, and that public finance should be used to unlock further private investment. Following a meeting with the President of the World Bank the UK is to be the host city for the new Climate Investment Fund, which will be listed on the London Stock Exchange and will aim to finance climate schemes in the developing world.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphatically refuted any accusations levelled against Azerbaijan’s unsuitability to host COP29, declaring that his country had become the ‘target of a coordinated, well-orchestrated campaign of slander and blackmail’. He blamed this campaign on ‘Western fake news media’ and ‘so-called independent NGOs’ who ‘were competing in spreading disinformation’. He described oil, gas, and other natural resources as a ‘gift of God’, arguing that countries should not be blamed for having them or bringing them to market, and criticised the EU and US for ‘double standards’ and ‘political hypocrisy’.
Hilda Heine, President of the Marshall Islands, specified the need for climate finance and called out delegates who would leave the conference and return to exploiting fossil fuels. With a population of 70,000, should global temperatures rise another 0.5C there is a real danger that the Marshall Islands may cease to exist.
Ethiopian President Taye Atseke Selassie Amde pledged 1% of Ethiopia’s national budget to green initiatives but highlighted the ‘overly complex’ debate around climate change in contrast to the quick action needed.
Lieutanant-General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of Sudan, praised African countries for the fight against climate change, and insisted that the Paris Agreement should be respected. In addition, he claimed that despite the ongoing war in Sudan his government was still attempting to meet green targets.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu declared that Moldova ‘exemplifies the injustice of climate change’, and called for an ‘equitable, accessible climate finance system’. She said that although Moldova contributes just 0.03% of global emissions, they are Europe’s most vulnerable nation to climate impacts.
Brazilian Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin stated that Brazil was an ‘environmental powerhouse’, and claimed that the country was implementing a plan that would guide climate policy until 2035. He went into more detail and said that Brazil would aim for the ‘ambitious but feasible’ target of reducing emissions by up to 67% by 2035 (compared to levels in 2005).
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez declared, following the recent flooding in Spain which killed 220 people, that ‘we cannot allow this [denying climate change] to happen’ and that governments needed to take more ‘drastic measures’. He stressed that ‘we can grow equitably and respect the planet’, delineating clearly that sustainability was about responsible and not stagnating growth.
Directly afterwards, Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley built upon Sanchez’s speech by highlighting extreme weather events such as Hurricane Beryl which devastated Barbados. She has been spearheading the work of developing countries to increase climate finance, criticised how in previous years asking for grants from richer countries has not helped her country at all, and wants to ‘transform the financial system’ by raising money from the most polluting industries.
Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister, warned that ‘we cannot sacrifice our industry or agriculture in this process’, and advised that governments should offer farms and businesses ‘practical support’. While he said that Hungary would reduce its emissions, he also emphasised the need to ‘balance ambition with pragmatism’.
Written by Teddy Hugh Smith, Avon Energy Partners Ltd.
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